Two political Georgias

In Georgia’s 2022 governor’s race, Brian Kemp, the Republican incumbent, defeated Democrat Stacey Abrams 54%-to-46%.  In the 1990 race, Zell Miller, the Democratic lieutenant governor making his first bid for the state’s top office, defeated GOP State Senator Johnny Isakson by the same margin (This analysis excludes the Libertarian vote in 1990 and 2022 and is based solely on the Democratic and Republican Party votes).

That, however, is where the similarity between the two races ends.  In assembling his victory, Kemp won five counties with an eye-popping 90%-plus of the vote; 32 with between 80% and 90% of the vote, and another 56 with between 70% and 80%.  These were, of course, largely rural, sparsely populated counties.  Abrams, who dominated in Metro Atlanta and other urban areas, topped 80% in heavily populated (and heavily Black) DeKalb and Clayton counties.

Thirty-two years earlier, Miller was able to top 70% in only seven counties; the best Isakson could do was 63% in his native Cobb County.  A dead-even 100 counties were decided by splits of 60-40 or closer.  In 2022, only 30 counties were that close. 

Put another way, in 2022, 70% was the floor for 100 of the state’s 159 counties, the least they gave one side or the other.  Back in 1990, 70% was the ceiling for 152 of those counties, the most they gave either the Republican or the Democratic Party candidate.

Put yet another way, in 1990 virtually every county and corner of the state was politically competitive.  There were significant numbers of Democratic and Republican votes to be found in every county, and there were no areas either party could afford to ignore.

By 2022, they faced the opposite problem.  Did it make any sense at all for Abrams to spend any time or money in the five counties that gave Kemp more than 90% of their vote?  Or, for that matter, the 32 more than gave him between 80% and 90% of their vote?  And how much of their campaign resources should Kemp and the GOP have poured into Clayton and DeKalb, the Democrat’s huge 80% counties?

I offer this background to make this point: Not only have most Georgia counties switched political sides, but the state itself has undergone something approaching cellular division.  (In one of the most dramatic examples of political mutation, Towns County in 1990 gave Miller, its native son and a Democrat, 73.9% of its vote; in 2020, it gave Kemp, the GOP incumbent, 85.2% of the local vote.)

Georgia may be touted in the political media as a “purple swing state,” but there are only a handful of the state’s 159 counties that might be regarded as “purple swing counties.”  Most are bright red or blue.

Today, there really are two political Georgias.  

I remember hearing a political science lecture years ago positing that 65% constituted political consensus.  In other words, anytime you got 65% of a community – a town, a county, a legislative district – to agree on something, you had political consensus and it was pretty much game over for the other 35%.  I’d argue the number might be a little lower than that, but let’s go with 65% and take a look at the Georgia General Assembly.

Today the Republican Party has stranglehold majorities in both the House and Senate – 102-78 in the House and 33-23 in the Senate.

The State Senate has 56 seats.  In the 2022 elections, 31 one of those seats weren’t even contested by the opposing party.  Another dozen – seven Republicans and five Democrats – were decided by margins of 65%-35% or more.  In the remaining 14 seats, the victor fell short of the 65% vote.  The closest thing to a nailbiter was Democrat Josh McLaurin’s 55%-45% victory over Republican Liz Hausmann in a North Fulton district.  Thanks to the miracle of computer-driven gerrymandering, only four seats were decided within the 60%-40% range.

The picture in the Georgia House of Representatives is much the same. Of the 180 seats in the Georgia House, 95 – just over half – drew no opposition and another 58 were won by margins of 20 points or more.  Only 27 were decided within the 60-40 range that could be considered somewhat competitive.

In other words, we now find ourselves with a General Assembly made up overwhelmingly of lawmakers who have either been given a free pass back to office (because there was no point in the opposing party putting up a candidate) or were elected with such lopsided majorities that they arguably have little incentive to do anything but cater to their respective bases.  

Charles Hayslett is the author of the long-running troubleingodscountry.com blog.  He is also the Scholar in Residence at the Center for Middle Georgia Studies at Middle Georgia State University. The views expressed in his columns are his own and are not necessarily those of the Center or the University.