The first step toward autocracy is already here

Here in Georgia, we have had a front-row seat to the erosion of democracy.

But it doesn’t look like the movies or come with a cinematic moment of revelation. Instead, we are watching it unfold day by day in small non-events and headlines that fail to capture our attention for more than a few hours. Over time, we get so used to the chaos, the disruption and the brokenness that we adapt — like a distant alarm that becomes part of the background noise or that rut on the road that has never been fixed, so we learn to drive over it.

We know something is wrong; we know there’s an issue that is causing harm — but we learn to accept it because that’s just the way it is.

But it shouldn’t be.

In recent months, I’ve been talking a lot about the “10 Steps to Autocracy and Authoritarianism.” This framework serves as a translator. The regime that’s attacking our way of life wants us to feel overwhelmed by what’s happening around us and to us. But the 10 Steps show how all of the pieces fit together. Over the next few weeks, I intend to use “Fine Print” to help us see how what’s happening around us is actually happening to us.

The bottom line is that authoritarians follow a playbook. By naming their steps, we expose their strategy. And by exposing their strategy, we empower ourselves to see their intentions — and defeat them. The “10 Steps to Autocracy and Authoritarianism” give us the intellectual scaffolding to recognize the danger signals, to see how each action by those in power fits into a broader design, and ultimately to arm ourselves with the information and tools we need to reclaim democracy for the people.

Today we’re talking about Step 1 — winning (usually the last) free and fair election. As always, I’d like to thank Kim Lane Scheppele, who researched this framework and allowed me to slightly editorialize it.

Across recent history and the world, most of the politicians who eventually dismantled democracy were at first chosen in free and fair elections. Citizens cast their ballots believing they were participating in the normal democratic process, and election monitors certified those contests as legitimate. But in many of these cases, the warning signs were visible long before Election Day. Aspirational autocrats often make it clear — through word or action — that they are not fully committed to democratic values and ideals and that the institutions by which people exercise their rights should be destroyed.

In Turkey, Erdogan won power in 2003 even after his party was banned and he was jailed for stoking religious hatred. In Venezuela, Chavez was elected in 1999 after trying to overthrow the elected government. In Hungary, Orban spent years attacking the legitimacy of elections he lost — and then rewrote the rules once he got back in power in 2010. And in Brazil, Bolsonaro openly praised Brazil’s 20th-century military coup and dictatorship long before his 2018 win — and has now been convicted and sentenced to 27 years in prison for plotting and participating in his own coup plot.

Of course, not every freely elected leader becomes an autocrat and not all authoritarians advertise their intentions in advance. But would-be strongmen often send unmistakable signals before winning the election that ultimately allows them to move against democratic institutions.

While Donald Trump’s election in 2016 may not have conformed to the classic trajectory of an autocrat, his behavior over the following years did. He refused to concede the 2020 election, incited supporters who violently attacked the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and was ultimately indicted in both state and federal courts for plotting to overturn the election result. He tried to undermine the legitimacy of the judicial process by calling it a “witch hunt.”

Now, within the first months of the second Trump administration, the pattern seen in places like Turkey, Venezuela, Hungary and Brazil has fully revealed itself in the United States.

So, you might be asking: what do we need to know?

Step 1 on the road to autocracy is that the erosion of democracy often begins with a legitimate election — even when warning signs are already flashing — which means we cannot wait until democratic systems are formally dismantled to push back. We must recognize these signals early, call them out clearly and organize before the next election. Failure to do so makes resistance exponentially harder.

We can’t assume that because the election was legitimate, the resulting administration will be. As we’ve watched since January, an election cannot be used to justify the wanton cruelty and corruption that has marked every single day of this regime — like gutting health care or firing thousands of hardworking civil servants or the U.S. Coast Guard announcing that swastikas and nooses are no longer hateful, shameful symbols.

We also have to stop accepting that bad politicians do bad things because “they won fair and square.” A free and fair election is not a hall pass to tyranny. As long as we cling to treating this new American order as something we simply need to survive, we are missing the point.

Yes, Republicans won the election — and they brought with them Christian nationalists, tech bros who have your private data, masked secret police, and the military occupation of cities like Memphis and Portland. This isn’t normal, so assuming the next election will fix it simply won’t do. I’m not calling for panic — but we must pay attention right now.

Authoritarianism isn’t coming to America. It’s here. Our job is to accept where we are and to plot our way forward — starting today.

While some of us may understand the threats we face, the reality hasn’t quite broken through for a lot of Georgians. That’s by design. When everything feels out of whack, nothing feels completely wrong.

A few months ago, I spent time with a naturalized citizen here in Georgia who had escaped a South American dictatorship decades before. We’d worked together many times, so I knew a bit of her story. When I asked about how she felt given what was happening in America, she shrugged.

“I don’t watch the news; it’s too depressing,” she said. “What’s going on?”

I spent the next few minutes updating her on the immigration ruling that authorizes racial profiling and the pending cuts to the Affordable Care Act. She is an independent contractor who gets her health care on the marketplace, and she has two children who could be targeted by ICE despite their citizenship.

She had no idea — but she wanted to know more.

You can be part of how we build the resistance. Join us at 10stepscampaign.org. We’ve got work to do.

Stacey Abrams is a bestselling author, entrepreneur and host of the podcast “Assembly Required.” She previously served as minority leader in the Georgia House of Representatives. This column was originally published in her “Assembly Notes” Substack newsletter.